Blue hydrogen market seen growing to 7.89 million tons by 2031

Mordor Intelligence projects the global blue hydrogen market will surge from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031, driven by carbon capture investments, blue ammonia trade and industrial demand. Asia-Pacific is emerging as the biggest growth region as Japan and South Korea build out supply chains and import infrastructure.

Why it matters: - Blue hydrogen is moving from a niche low-carbon fuel into a larger industrial supply chain for ammonia, methanol, refining and shipping. - Mordor Intelligence projects the market will expand at a 57.64% CAGR from 2026 through 2031, signaling rapid commercial buildout if policy support and infrastructure keep pace. - Asia-Pacific is becoming the center of demand growth, which could reshape hydrogen trade flows and carbon capture investment.

What happened: - Mordor Intelligence said the global blue hydrogen market is expected to rise from 0.81 million tons in 2026 to 7.89 million tons by 2031. - The market forecast implies strong growth over the 2026-2031 period as carbon capture-backed hydrogen projects gain traction. - Asia-Pacific is emerging as a key growth region, supported by blue ammonia supply agreements with Japan and South Korea. - The report pointed to more information on market trends and competitive developments.

The details: - Investment in autothermal reforming plants with carbon capture is being supported by the US IRA 45V tax credit and European regulations. - Shared carbon capture and storage infrastructure across the US Gulf Coast, North Sea and Alberta is helping lower project costs. - Saudi Arabia’s blue ammonia exports to Japan have shown ammonia can move hydrogen over long distances. - South Korea is investing in ammonia-cracking infrastructure to support regional supply chains. - These trade routes give Japan and South Korea access to lower-carbon hydrogen while easing domestic renewable energy constraints. - Chemical manufacturers are using blue hydrogen as a lower-carbon feedstock for ammonia and methanol production. - Blue hydrogen is also gaining attention in fertilizer manufacturing and marine fuel production as companies try to meet emissions requirements. - Carbon capture incentives and demand for certified low-carbon products are encouraging long-term supply agreements. - By technology, the market includes steam methane reforming with CCS, autothermal reforming with CCS, gas partial oxidation with CCS, natural gas pyrolysis and integrated SMR-ATR hybrids. - By end user, the report tracks refining, chemicals, iron and steel, transportation and other industries including cement, glass and food. - By geography, the report covers Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America and the Middle East and Africa.

Between the lines: - Blue hydrogen’s growth depends heavily on carbon capture economics, policy incentives and access to low-cost gas. - Carbon capture raises energy use, feedstock consumption and operating costs. - ATR can improve efficiency, but the oxygen supply infrastructure adds expense. - High natural gas prices in Europe are pressuring project economics. - Hydrogen pyrolysis remains an early-stage alternative, so it is not yet a near-term substitute at scale. - The report suggests blue hydrogen is strongest in sectors where emissions cuts matter more than maximum efficiency. - Asia-Pacific’s rise reflects a practical approach: import ammonia, crack it locally and use existing industrial demand. - Europe is supporting adoption through low-carbon fuel policies and industrial clusters, but storage rules and fuel prices remain hurdles. - Saudi Arabia and Brazil are exploring export opportunities, with Northeast Asia emerging as a likely destination.

What's next: - China is expanding production capacity alongside carbon storage projects. - Japan and South Korea are building import terminals to support hydrogen supply chains. - India is exploring blue hydrogen production, but wider adoption will depend on policy support and carbon pricing. - The United Kingdom is developing hydrogen supply networks, while Germany and other European countries are advancing selected projects. - The Blue Point One project in Louisiana is expected to begin operations in 2029 and targets 1.4 million metric tons of annual ammonia production. - Aramco’s 50% stake acquisition in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company is expected to support hydrogen supply to refining, chemical and petrochemical industries. - Mordor Intelligence said its structured research methodology is designed to help decision-makers assess market developments, competitive strategies and growth drivers.

The bottom line: - Blue hydrogen is becoming a scale play built on carbon capture, ammonia logistics and industrial demand, with Asia-Pacific leading the next phase of growth.