US intelligence claims Western backing won’t guarantee triumph for Kiev

(MENAFN) The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment by the US Intelligence Community warns that Western military support and sanctions will not be enough to shift the balance of power in Ukraine’s favor.

The report, which evaluates global threats to US interests, lists Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as key challengers. It highlights Moscow’s battlefield advantage, noting that Russia has adapted to external military aid provided to Ukraine. The ongoing "war of attrition" is expected to further weaken Kiev, despite Western efforts to impose additional costs on Moscow.

While the war has strained Russia’s resources, the intelligence assessment points out that it has also provided Moscow with valuable experience in countering Western weapons and intelligence in large-scale warfare. These lessons, which Russia is likely sharing with allied nations, could complicate future US military planning.

Russia has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, improving its military capabilities in areas such as unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and cyber operations, the report states. Meanwhile, efforts to undermine Russia’s economy have driven Moscow to strengthen alternative partnerships—particularly with China, which opposes US sanctions as illegal and outdated Cold War tactics.

The assessment also warns that the Ukraine conflict carries the risk of unintentional escalation, given Russia’s extensive strategic arsenal, which includes conventional and nuclear weapons, cyber warfare tools, and anti-satellite capabilities.

Despite ongoing hostilities, the report suggests that both Moscow and Kiev have reasons to avoid rushing into a settlement. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears confident in favorable battlefield trends, while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky fears that an outright defeat could lead to domestic unrest.

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