Airline Industry Forecasts Record Profits, Passenger Growth

(MENAFN) Global airline earnings are projected to surge to USD36 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.1 percent annual rise, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

This optimistic forecast comes in spite of continued strains from international trade conflicts, geopolitical instability, and economic unpredictability.

As outlined in IATA’s most recent Global Outlook for Air Transport analysis, overall airline revenue is anticipated to reach an unprecedented USD979 billion in the coming year.

At the same time, operational costs are estimated at USD913 billion.

The industry's bottom-line profit margin is predicted to improve to 3.7 percent, an increase from 3.4 percent in 2024.

Passenger traffic is also on track to achieve a record, with 4.99 billion people expected to fly in 2025—a 4 percent uptick from the previous year.

Freight activity is projected to expand slightly, with air cargo volumes rising by 0.6 percent to 69 million metric tons.

However, IATA cautioned that multiple threats persist for the aviation sector.

These include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, intensifying commercial conflicts, increasing political division globally, and unstable energy prices.

The analysis also raised concerns that potential shifts in U.S. trade strategy, particularly under Trump administration, might stall critical corporate decisions, thereby weakening the demand for air freight and business-related travel.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, acknowledged the hurdles confronting the aviation field but pointed out that most performance metrics signal a stronger period ahead.

“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets.

Nonetheless, by many measures, including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections.”

MENAFN02062025000045017167ID1109624027